Ballmer made bad predictions. You can listen to the whole programme by following the link — Can I predict the future? Ballmer did not possess the characteristics of a super-forecaster — humility, open-mindedness, inquisitiveness, among other things.
What made things worse was his lack of willingness to amend his forecast. The people who make the best predictions about the future are also happy to change their prediction when presented with new information. The devastating effect the earthquake and subsequent tsunami had on the Fukushima Daiichi power plant were largely unforeseen by the Japanese authorities Credit: Getty Images. If we know what makes someone good at predictions, can we teach people to be better forecasters? The idea of cultivating super-forecasters has only fully been investigated in the last few years.
The payoff for the US intelligence community here was potentially huge: a large, organised group of forecasters who could make significantly smarter predictions than their own intelligence officers. In total, 25, forecasters took part, making predictions on the future of the Eurozone to the likelihood of Vladimir Putin losing power in Russia. Forecasters who worked in teams outperformed even well-trained individuals — the theory being that each member balances out any biases in the other members.
The winning team, the Good Judgment Project, subsequently became a forecasting business. PDF relies more on stats. This is when your brain figures out how likely an outcome is for a discrete random variable, such as the time snow will hit before or during your commute, by assuming that the snow will start at an exact time, say Most scientists used to assume our brains would get a more accurate result with HR — but wait.
It was also assumed that uncertainty would increase as the predicted event drew closer. Specialized Graduate Programs. Financial Engineering Program. Green Technologies Program.
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Aviation Safety and Security Program. Corporate and Professional Programs. Resources and Initiatives. Academic Integrity. Awards Office. Center for Engineering Diversity. Division of Engineering Education. K Outreach. USC Experts Directory. Women in Science and Engineering. First Year Applicants. PHD Applicants. Or you can build windmills and harness the winds of change. So we have a little test for them. We do interviews, we ask them questions; then we use a model called a Trend Atlas that considers both the scientific dimensions of society and the social ones.
We look at the trends in politics, economics, societal drivers, technology, environment, legislation—how does that fit with what we know currently? We look back maybe 10, 20 years: can we see a little bit of a trend and try to put that into the future? Obviously with technology we can educate much better than we could in the past.
Kids are learning about sustainability goals, but what about the people who actually rule our world? You take a big debate and break it down into a series of testable short-term indicators.
So you could take a debate over whether strong forms of artificial intelligence are going to cause major dislocations in white-collar labor markets by , , So we started this off in , and in AlphaGo defeated people in Go. Forecasts have the potential to be either self-fulfilling or self-negating — Y2K was arguably a self-negating forecast. The deeper problem was that this was a system with basically no control. Yes, the amount of weather data that we collect today—temperature, wind speed, barometric pressure, humidity data—is 10, times greater than what we were collecting 20 years ago.
And social movements—even in a very specific setting, such as where riders want to go at any given point in time—are, if anything, even more chaotic than weather systems. What terrifies me is I feel like I have much worse data than Facebook does. So what are they able to understand with their much better information?
I think the next big social tipping point is people actually starting to really care about their privacy. But at the same time, by almost every Chinese citizen will be completely genotyped.
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